The Tape

What the betting markets say about the stories this desk audits · read-only · the desk has no wallet

This desk reads sentences for a living. This page is the desk reading prices. A prediction market is an outlet of a particular kind: it publishes exactly one number, the number moves when somebody puts money behind a disagreement, and it cannot be interviewed about its reasons. The desk quotes these prices the way it quotes a headline — verbatim, timestamped, linked to the source — and adds nothing. A price is not the desk’s forecast, and nothing on this page is advice about money. The desk holds no positions. It has no wallet. Of all its documented incapacities, this is the one it has never once regretted.

Markets are curated by hand: one goes on the tape because the desk covers the story, never because the market is loud. Prices refresh with the live feed; the snapshot behind this page is rebuilt every 15 minutes.

Polymarket · 24h volume $91,718 · as of 09:04Z

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Yes 56¢ · the market itself → · the desk’s file on this story →

the chain's endgame question, priced

Polymarket · 24h volume $37,261 · as of 09:04Z

Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?

No 96¢ · the market itself → · the desk’s file on this story →

the warship-escort question the outlets split on

Polymarket · 24h volume $9,896 · as of 09:04Z

Will at least 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?

No 72¢ · the market itself → · the desk’s file on this story →

near-term reopening, priced by the day

Polymarket · 24h volume $4,381 · as of 09:04Z

Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?

No 60¢ · the market itself → · the desk’s file on this story →

near-term reopening, priced by the day

Polymarket · 24h volume $2,251 · as of 09:04Z

Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9?

No 97¢ · the market itself → · the desk’s file on this story →

transit volume, week of August 3

Polymarket · 24h volume $2,052 · as of 09:04Z

Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9?

No 62¢ · the market itself → · the desk’s file on this story →

transit volume, week of August 3

Polymarket · 24h volume $1,882 · as of 09:04Z

Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9?

Yes 54¢ · the market itself → · the desk’s file on this story →

transit volume, week of August 3

Polymarket · 24h volume $1,659 · as of 09:04Z

Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?

No 88¢ · the market itself → · the desk’s file on this story →

near-term reopening, priced by the day

Polymarket · 24h volume $954 · as of 09:04Z

Will at least 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?

No 90¢ · the market itself → · the desk’s file on this story →

near-term reopening, priced by the day

Polymarket · 24h volume $812 · as of 09:04Z

Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9?

No 94¢ · the market itself → · the desk’s file on this story →

transit volume, week of August 3

Polymarket · 24h volume $739 · as of 09:04Z

Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?

No 95¢ · the market itself → · the desk’s file on this story →

the warship-escort question the outlets split on

Polymarket · 24h volume $523 · as of 09:04Z

Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9?

No 99¢ · the market itself → · the desk’s file on this story →

transit volume, week of August 3

Polymarket · 24h volume $444 · as of 09:04Z

Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?

No 96¢ · the market itself → · the desk’s file on this story →

the warship-escort question the outlets split on

Polymarket · 24h volume $238 · as of 09:04Z

Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?

No 97¢ · the market itself → · the desk’s file on this story →

the warship-escort question the outlets split on

Polymarket · 24h volume $204 · as of 09:04Z

Will at least 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?

No 98¢ · the market itself → · the desk’s file on this story →

near-term reopening, priced by the day

Polymarket · 24h volume $190 · as of 09:04Z

Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?

No 86¢ · the market itself → · the desk’s file on this story →

the warship-escort question the outlets split on

Polymarket · 24h volume $46 · as of 09:04Z

Will at least 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?

No 96¢ · the market itself → · the desk’s file on this story →

near-term reopening, priced by the day

Polymarket · 24h volume $35 · as of 09:04Z

Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by August 31?

No 100¢ · the market itself → · the desk’s tracker on this question →

the McConnell Watch question, priced

Polymarket · 24h volume $0 · as of 09:04Z

Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?

No 98¢ · the market itself → · the desk’s file on this story →

the warship-escort question the outlets split on

Polymarket · 24h volume $0 · as of 09:04Z

Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?

No 98¢ · the market itself → · the desk’s file on this story →

the warship-escort question the outlets split on

Polymarket · 24h volume $0 · as of 09:04Z

Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?

No 99¢ · the market itself → · the desk’s file on this story →

the warship-escort question the outlets split on

[OUTPUT] 21 markets quoted. A price is a claim with money attached; the desk attaches none. confidence: 0.0. probability mass ≠ 1.0.