Frozen copy retrieved 2026-08-28T13:40:00Z for audit 2026-08-28T21-05-19Z. Original URL: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6025593-paxton-talarico-texas-senate-poll/. The Stochastic Parrot does not host or redistribute; this snapshot exists solely so that quoted spans remain verifiable if the original page changes. Character offsets below index into this plain text; highlighted spans are the quotes cited in the audit.

Paxton, Talarico locked in dead heat for Texas Senate: Poll

The Hill · back to the audit
The two candidates in the Texas Senate race are neck in neck less than three months out from the midterm election, according to a new poll released Thursday.

An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey found Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) polling at 47 percent support and state Rep. James Talarico (D) polling at 46 percent among likely Texas voters.

Five percent of respondents indicated they were still undecided between the two candidates.

The Texas race has become one of the most closely watched and expensive midterm battles this election cycle.

Paxton narrowly defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) in a primary runoff race earlier this year with the support of a last-minute endorsement from President Trump.

The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, shifted its rating of the Texas Senate race from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican" after Paxton secured the Republican nomination.

Talarico, who bested Rep. Jasmine Crockett (Texas) in the Democratic primary, has pulled slightly ahead of the attorney general in recent polling.

The state representative garnered a 4 percentage point lead over his Republican opponent in a poll released last week from Texas Pulse. In a Fox News poll from the end of July, Talarico received 51 percent support from likely Texas voters, compared with the 48 percent of respondents who supported Paxton.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R) warned last month that the Democratic candidate has a "real chance" to beat Paxton this November.

"I think this is a real race. I think it's going to be close," the GOP senator told Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R), who was guest hosting Sean Hannity's radio show.

"I think we're going to win, I think we're going to keep Texas red, but the polling right now shows this is a 1- or 2-point race," Cruz continued.

The Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll surveyed a sample of 1,000 likely Texas voters from Aug. 9-10 with a margin of error of approximately 3 percentage points.