What we know about China's moon-landing plans and why the US is so worried

What we know about China’s moon-landing plans and why the US is so worried

By Jackie Wattles, Published Aug 7, 2026. Updated Aug 10, 2026.

A gravity-defying competition that brewed in the background of geopolitics for decades is now roaring to the forefront — with China demonstrating rapid advances in space technology and the United States ratcheting up rhetoric about a looming battle for control of the cosmos.

In the past five years alone, China has launched Tiangong, a modern orbital laboratory to rival the aging, US-led International Space Station. China also retrieved the first-ever soil samples from the far side of the moon, a feat no other nation has duplicated.

But it’s the fact that China plans to build a permanent settlement on the moon by 2040 that has prompted an urgent response from lawmakers on Capitol Hill. They’ve declared a new space race, and NASA is pledging to build a lunar outpost of America’s own. Adding to the tension is the fact that aerospace development in China is largely shrouded in secrecy, making it tough to say with absolute certainty which country is ahead in the contest. There are, however, a few clues.

And this year could mark a dramatic turning point as the moon’s south pole becomes more of a focal point for both nations.

The region is already the linchpin for US and Chinese ambitions because scientists believe it to be home to water ice. This crucial in-space resource can be converted into rocket fuel, breathable air or drinking water — all vital to sustaining an extraterrestrial settlement.

Both the United States and China plan to send robotic explorers to the south pole later this year, paving the way for human explorers to follow close behind.

The US is relying on the private sector to develop and build low-cost, exploratory robotic landers. The nation is next planning to deliver a lander called Griffin, developed by Pittsburgh-based company Astrobotic Technology, to the lunar south pole in late 2026. The NASA-funded mission will aim to improve on the performance of two prior landers, built by another US company, that tripped while attempting to land on the south pole’s notoriously treacherous terrain.

Meanwhile, China is aiming to launch its robotic Chang’e-7 mission as soon as this month.

The complex endeavor will seek to use four different robotic vehicles — an orbiter, lander, rover and mobile “hopper” — working in tandem to attempt to gather unprecedented data. The effort will include tools to drill for and directly analyze water ice, a feat that the US will only attempt with robotic missions slated for next year at the earliest.

The oncoming flurry of south-pole-centric activity, with few established international laws to govern the outcomes, is heightening the drama of this rivalry. The dynamic echoes the Cold War, when NASA’s moon landings sought to project power and showcase on the world stage that technology produced by Western capitalism was superior to that of Eastern communism.

But with a much more ambitious goal — a future in which people attempt to flourish within permanent settlements rather than just visit the moon — the stakes of this new space race are even higher, according to Clayton Swope, the deputy director of the Aerospace Security Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a bipartisan nonprofit.

“The long-term vision will take generations to execute on,” Swope said. “But in my mind, it’s a scenario where there are people being born, people dying, their families, children growing up in a place that is not Earth — so that looks a lot like a city, more than it looks like an expedition to the south pole.”

If such a future comes to fruition, Swope added, his hope is that such extraterrestrial colonies would be governed by rules reminiscent of Western ideals and democratic principles. Whether China would be on the same page is an open question.

A cultural prophecy

China’s space ambitions come straight from the top.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping has called building the country into a space power an “eternal dream.” He’s long positioned that ambition within his overarching vision for the country’s “rejuvenation,” which aims to bring China to a place of power and prominence globally, including in science and technology.

Some of the names used with China’s space program also allude to the moon’s deep cultural significance. The lunar program, for example, is named for the goddess Chang’e, described in a 4,000-year-old myth, who is celebrated each year at the Mid-Autumn Festival.

More recently, the country has set its sights on expanding its exploration efforts beyond robotics, aiming to become only the second nation in the world to put its own citizens on the moon.

“We will spare no effort to strive for the goal of achieving the first Chinese landing on the moon by 2030,” Zhang Jingbo, a spokesperson for the China Manned Space Agency, said in May.

After 12 NASA astronauts successfully walked on the moon and returned with about 850 pounds (385 kilograms) of lunar rock and soil, no person has set foot on the lunar surface since the Apollo program concluded in 1972.

It’s not clear how much money China is spending on its lunar program, as even experts who follow its efforts closely lack insight into the country’s coffers. But given the pace and precision with which China has operated its robotic Chang’e missions, many experts believe the country will reach its 2030 goal.

CNN has reached out to China’s State Council, which oversees the China National Space Administration, for comment.

“One of the challenges with China is there’s no transparency,” former NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine previously told CNN.

“But what we do know,” Bridenstine said, “is that when they give themselves milestones, they hit them.”

Bridenstine has also said that he believes the next people to walk on the moon will most likely be taikonauts, or Chinese astronauts.

That’s concerning to American lawmakers, policymakers and former NASA leadership. While NASA’s current road map proposes landing astronauts on the moon by 2028, the timeline has already shifted repeatedly and is widely expected to face further delays due to engineering and technological challenges.

For his part, current NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman has acknowledged that China is “absolutely a great competitor” — “not just in space, it’s across the board.”

“I’m telling you conclusively now that the Chinese will be able to do what the Soviets were not: They will land their taikonauts on the moon,” Isaacman said in an interview with CNN for the documentary “Eclipsing Power: Musk, Bezos and the New Space Race.” But Isaacman has also said publicly that he is “confident” the US will rise to the challenge and meet its 2028 deadline.

China’s simplicity

China, meanwhile, has been laser focused on its lunar exploration program since 2004, using its top-down, central planning system to keep resources flowing toward specific goals.

Details shared by state-run media indicate the China is pursuing a streamlined approach, capable of getting humans on the moon with the launch of just two rockets: one for an astronaut capsule and the other for a lunar lander, called Lanyue. The vehicles would have to dock in orbit, but they would not require in-space refueling like the US approach.

Overall, China’s technological pathway to getting its taikonauts on the moon by 2030 appears more straightforward than the United States’, said Patrick Besha, a former NASA strategic adviser and expert on China’s space program who was laid off by DOGE, or the Department of Government Efficiency, last year.

“Some of the hurdles that are remaining are not instrumental,” Besha said. “These are not unsolvable problems.”

The long-term vision

Many American leaders appear preoccupied with putting boots back on the moon, but space policy experts question whether short-term victories are as important as long-term commitment.

Besha said he prefers to think of the dynamic between the US and China as more of an “international competition” than a race — specifically because the idea of a race conjures the idea of a clear finish line.

At the heart of this lunar contest is the question of how such an extraterrestrial settlement will be governed: What will the lives of lunar inhabitants look like? Who will write the rules? And how, exactly, will the use of lunar resources be policed on the international stage?

The United States has outlined its intentions in a document called the Artemis Accords — a 2020 pact that codifies what has long been US domestic policy: Nations and commercial companies should be able to extract resources, and countries can implement “safety zones” to protect such activities, essentially barring outsiders from entering certain areas of the moon.

Seventy countries have signed the accords. But China and several of its closest allies — including Pakistan, Belarus, Russia and Egypt — have not.

But therein lies a legal quandary.

The 1967 Outer Space Treaty, which remains the central document of international space law, states that “outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, is not subject to national appropriation by claim of sovereignty, by means of use or occupation, or by any other means.”

Most Western scholars say the treaty language leaves room for interpretation.

China’s stance on whether resources can or should be harvested and used for commercial or national gain is less clear. But Chinese officials have occasionally shared comments that suggest a willingness to embrace resource extraction.

China typically frames its ambitions as “advancing human progress” and says that it “upholds the principle of exploration and utilization of outer space for peaceful purposes.”

Collaboration vs. competition

The lack of straightforward, international rules and clarity about the 1967 treaty could set the stage fordangerous conflicts. But experts also emphasize that the moon — and the lunar south pole — are large, perhaps offering enough resources for both nations to realize their visions in tandem.

Each country may operate within their own spheres of influence. “I do not think China will impose their rules on us, and I don’t think we can impose our rules on China,” Swope said of the norms that may take shape in this era of lunar exploration.

But the current climate is one in which strict lines are being drawn. Citing concerns about espionage and intellectual property theft, the US has refused to work with China and last year even banned visa-holding Chinese nationals from working at NASA.

While the US and China have historically shared scientific research data, export control laws, specifically the United States’ International Traffic in Arms Regulations, and a 2011 law known as the Wolf Amendment, strictly limit how NASA can collaborate with its Chinese counterparts.

But in the long term, Swope and Besha each said they believe frosty relations and a lack of coordination between the two nations may not be sustainable.

If the 20th century space race serves as any blueprint, years of competition generated astounding technological strides before the Soviet Union and the United States opted to begin working together. This cooperation culminated in the International Space Station, which the US and Russia still jointly operate.

In the next iteration of global powers battling for dominance in space, Besha wonders whether there is “room to solve some of the global challenges that we will face,” such as mitigating the risks of collisions in space or coordinating the search for asteroids that pose a risk to Earth.

“We should also think about whether there is space for cooperation,” he said.

— CNN’s Simone McCarthy contributed reporting.