Texas and Iowa Senate Races Move to Toss Up; Races for Governor Also Move in Democrats’ Direction

HEADLINE: Texas and Iowa Senate Races Move to Toss Up; Races for Governor Also Move in Democrats’ Direction
BYLINE: Jessica Taylor
PUBLISHED: August 20, 2026

The battle for the Senate is about to intensify ahead of the traditional Labor Day starting gun. Republicans still retain a structural advantage given the partisan challenges of the map, and Democrats still need almost every key race to break their way. But as we recently wrote, in a wave election akin to 2006, even states that President Donald Trump won by double digits could move within Democrats’ reach.

That’s what we see happening in Texas and Iowa. These two races, which had been in the Lean Republican column, now are close enough to merit a move to Toss Up. Even though, on paper, it should be extraordinarily difficult for Democrats to flip seats that Trump won by more than 13 points, it’s increasingly hard to ignore both public and private polling showing them to be more competitive than the Lean category reflects.

In addition, those states’ gubernatorial races are also moving in Democrats’ direction — Texas from Solid to Likely Republican and Iowa from Toss Up to Lean Democrat — reflecting the worsening national and state-based environment for the [remainder subscriber-exclusive]

[About blurb on page: The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends.]