Democrats Within Striking Distance of Flipping Two Major Trump Strongholds

HEADLINE: Democrats Within Striking Distance of Flipping Two Major Trump Strongholds
BYLINE: Mandy Taheri
PUBLISHED: 2026-08-20T19:11:52-04:00

Two Senate races in states that President Donald Trump won decisively in 2024 are now rated as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report, as clashes in Iowa and Texas turn increasingly competitive, widening Democrats' potential path to a Senate majority.

The rating changes come as Democrats seek to regain control of the Senate while edging into traditionally Republican territory, including Iowa and Texas, where Trump won by roughly 13 and 14 percentage points, respectively, in 2024. Democrats also saw movement in their favor in the gubernatorial contests, adding to signs of increasing competitiveness across the two states.

In its update, Cook described the political landscape in Iowa as “uniquely challenging for the GOP.” While Republicans remain favored to hold many of the seats under their control, the shifting outlook in Iowa and Texas suggests the political map may be expanding beyond the traditional battleground states. Democrats need to maintain their seats and flip four to retake control of the Senate, as Republicans carry a 53-45 majority in the upper chamber. (Independent Senators Bernie Sanders and Angus King also caucus with the Democratic Party.)

Cook's outlook also highlights the challenges Democrats face in defending their own battleground seats, including Michigan, where the open Senate race is also rated as a toss-up.

“This news proves what people across this state already know: we are going to end 30 years of one-party rule and take back Texas,” Lone Star State Democrat James Talarico’s campaign spokesperson JT Ennis told Newsweek about Cook's update.

Newsweek also reached out to the campaigns of Texas Republican candidate Ken Paxton, along with Iowa's Josh Turek, a Democrat, and his Senate race foe Ashley Hinson, a Republican, for comment via email on Thursday.

What To Know

Democrats say concerns over the economy, Trump's standing with voters and a series of stronger-than-expected election results have improved their prospects, while Republicans maintain that the political environment will favor the GOP in November.

High-profile primaries and recent polling have reshaped several midterm races, elevating new candidates and prompting several major election forecasters to revisit their ratings. The Cook Political Report has classified a handful of closely watched Senate races as “toss-ups,” including, Alaska, Maine, Ohio and Michigan, and on Thursday, shifted the Texas and Iowa Senate races to toss-up status. Both races were previously seen as “Lean Republican.”

In the Iowa update, the forecaster said, “even though the GOP’s nominee Representative Ashley Hinson is one of their best recruits—and is running more competitively than retiring Senator Joni Ernst would have been—the political environment is uniquely challenging for the GOP here.”

In Texas, Trump-endorsed Attorney General Paxton's primary defeat of Senator John Cornyn seems to have added uncertainty to a race once seen as reliably Republican.

With Texas and Iowa shifted to toss-up status, Cook no longer lists any relatively tight Senate races as "Lean Republican." It rates three contests as "Lean Democrat," including North Carolina's open seat, currently held by Republicans.

The Cook analysis also updated both of the states' gubernatorial races, updating Texas from "Solid Republican" to "Likely Republican," and Iowa from "toss-up" to "lean Democrat." All four of the statewide updates bode well for Democrats.

With 75 days until the midterms, candidates are expected to pour millions into Iowa, Texas and other competitive contests as both parties fight for control of the Senate.

Iowa Political Landscape

Representative Hinson is battling state Representative Turek in the Iowa Senate race. They are running to succeed Republican Senator Joni Ernst, who chose not to run for reelection. Democrats haven't secured a Senate seat in the state since Tom Harkin's election in 2008.

Iowa was viewed as a battleground for much of the 2000s, with former President Barack Obama carrying the state by about 10 points in 2008 and 6 points in 2012. But Trump performed well there in each of his presidential bids, winning by 10 points in 2016, 8 points in 2020 and 13 points in 2024.

Republican Governor Kim Reynolds, who has led the state since 2017, is not seeking reelection. The last time a Democrat won Iowa’s governorship was in 2006, when Chet Culver was elected. Culver lost his reelection in 2010 to Republican Terry Branstad, and there's been a Republican in office ever since. Democrat Rob Sand is going up against Republican nominee Zach Lahn for the state office.

In response to the updated rating, Turek said in an X post on Thursday morning, "We’ve always known this would be close, and now the experts agree: This is one of the closest Senate races in the country." He added, "Iowans are ready for change. We’re going to win this race in November and Push for Change!"

Steffen Schmidt, emeritus professor of political science at Iowa State University, told Newsweek in an email, “It's true that the political environment in Iowa is very flexible and it is possible that the field has become competitive.” He added that both parties are taking the toss-up classification as “a challenge for them to mobilize voters.”

However, Tim Hagle, associate professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Iowa, told Newsweek in an email, “I'm sure Cook \[Political Report\] has its reasons for the change, but I don't buy it.”

He continued, “I think there's a chance the governor's race could go for \[Rob\] Sand (Dem) and the Senate race for Hinson (Rep). Both races will be determined by Iowa's No Party voters (independents) and they are very capable of splitting their vote.”

Iowa Senate Race

Turek is a two-time Paralympic gold medalist and state House member, first elected in 2022. Obama endorsed him in a late-July video, while Trump has endorsed Hinson, who was first elected in 2020 after serving in the state House and working as a journalist.

Fox News Power Rankings also rates the Iowa Senate race as a toss-up, while Sabato's Crystal Ball continues to classify the contest as “leans Republican.”

Turnout in both parties' Senate primaries in the state surpassed 2022 levels, with 206,786 ballots cast in the Republican primary and 192,136 in the Democratic primary, compared with 198,858 Republican ballots and 158,745 Democratic ballots four years ago.

Recent polling shows a tight race in Iowa, with RealClearPolling's average giving Hinson a lead of less than 1 percentage point over Turek, 47 percent to 46.3 percent.

An August Emerson poll also found Hinson with a slight lead, 47.5 percent to 45 percent. She was viewed favorably by 44 percent of respondents and unfavorably by 40 percent, while Turek was viewed favorably by 42 percent and unfavorably by 27 percent. It surveyed 712 likely voters from August 2 to August 4 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

An earlier Fox News poll of 1,003 Iowa registered voters found Turek leading Hinson 50 percent to 46 percent, with 4 percent undecided. The poll was conducted from June 23 to June 27 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

A June New York Times/Siena College poll found Hinson with a 2-point lead, 48 percent to Turek’s 46 percent. About 5 percent of likely voters were unsure. The poll, however, found Turek holding stronger favorability ratings than Hinson, with 46 percent viewing him favorably and 19 percent unfavorably, compared with 41 percent favorable and 34 percent unfavorable for Hinson. The poll of 600 likely voters was conducted from June 15 to June 17 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points.

Texas Political Landscape

The GOP's decades-long hold on Texas statewide offices will be tested in November, with the Senate race between Paxton and Talarico nearly deadlocked in polls.

Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, making it one of the nation's longest-running Republican strongholds. Democrats have repeatedly targeted the state as demographic shifts and population growth have reshaped its electorate, but they have fallen short in a series of closely watched campaigns, including Beto O'Rourke's 2018 Senate bid against Republican Ted Cruz.

Trump carried Texas in each of his three presidential runs, winning the state by roughly 9 percentage points in 2016, 6 points in 2020 and nearly 14 points in 2024.

Still, Texas has become increasingly competitive in recent election cycles as population growth and higher turnout in major metropolitan areas have narrowed some statewide margins.

Paxton used the rating change to urge supporters to donate and get involved as he campaigns against Talarico, directing voters to go to his campaign website.

The Texas governor's race is one of 36 gubernatorial contests in 2026, a cycle that includes several other high-profile open-seat races in states like Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada and Georgia.

Governor Greg Abbott is a strong conservative and staunch ally of Trump who was first elected to the state's top office in 2014 and reelected in 2018 and 2022. A fourth term would put Abbott on track to become the longest-serving governor in Texas history, surpassing Rick Perry, who served from 2000 to 2015. Democrat Gina Hinojosa, a lawyer who was sworn in to the Texas House in 2017, secured the Democratic nomination in March.

Texas Senate Race

Texas has become a key battleground in the fight for Senate control, with the closely contested race between Paxton and Talarico offering Democrats a rare opportunity to compete in a state that has not elected a Democrat statewide in more than three decades.

“Ken Paxton is bought by billionaire mega-donors and special interests, runs away every time a reporter asks him a question, and has spent his career enriching himself at the expense of working Texans. Texans are tired of this broken, corrupt political system and are ready to elect a leader who will fight for working people,” Ennis said in a statement to Newsweek.

Fox News Power Rankings earlier this week moved Texas into the "toss up” column, though Sabato's Crystal Ball continues to rate the race as "Lean Republican."

RealClearPolling aggregate average puts Talarico up by 1.2 percentage points, 46 percent to Paxton’s 44.8 percent. Polls go back and forth on who leads in the Lone Star State, often with statistical leads within the margin of error.

Surveys show both Paxton, who is endorsed by Trump, and Talarico, who has served as state representative since 2018, holding narrow leads at different points in the campaign and among different pollsters.

A recent Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll of 1,000 likely Texas voters puts the Senate race in a near dead heat, with 47 percent backing Paxton and 46 percent supporting Talarico. About 5 percent are undecided and 2 percent back a different candidate. The poll was conducted from August 9 to August 11 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

An earlier Fox News poll of 1,006 registered Texas voters found that 51 percent backed Talarico and 48 percent Paxton, with 1 percent undecided. The survey was conducted from July 23 to July 27 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.