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Cook Political Report moves Texas, Iowa Senate races to toss-ups; Schumer sees path to Democratic majority
HEADLINE: Cook Political Report moves Texas, Iowa Senate races to toss-ups; Schumer sees path to Democratic majority
PUBLISHED: August 20, 2026
Following the Cook Political Report rating the U.S. Senate races in Texas and Iowa as toss-ups Thursday, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer took time from his August recess to crow about Democrats’ odds for taking back the chamber in November.
“Democrats, we are on the path to victory. We’ve blown the map wide open,” Schumer said during a brief news conference in New York. “We’re competing in states no one ever thought we had a chance in. Not just blue states but purple states and even red states.”
A nonpartisan election analysis site, Cook reported Thursday that Republicans still hold a structural advantage in the upcoming midterms, with Democrats needing to win nearly every key race to take back the Senate. But it said Texas and Iowa, which had been in Cook’s “lean Republican” column are now so close they have shifted them to toss-ups.
In Iowa, the Senate contest will pit President Donald Trump-endorsed Republican U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson against Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek, following Republican incumbent Sen. Joni Ernst’s decision to not seek reelection.
In Texas, Trump-backed Republican candidate Ken Paxton, the state's attorney general, faces Democratic state Rep. James Talarico.
Texas has not had a Democratic U.S. senator since 1993, when Bob Krueger briefly served in the role after being appointed by then-Texas Gov. Ann Richards to replace Lloyd Bentsen, who resigned to become President Bill Clinton’s treasury secretary. Krueger left office after losing a special election to Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison.
The last time Iowa had a Democratic senator was in January 2015, when Tom Harkin, who had served for over 30 years, retired instead of seeking a sixth term.
Cook also moved both states’ gubernatorial races to the left, with the Iowa race for governor shifting to “lean Democrat” from “toss-up” and the Texas governor race moving from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican.”
“Why are we doing so well in even these red states?” Schumer asked Thursday. “Because we are focusing on what people care about: the high cost of living, the chaos, whether it’s in the streets of our cities or in Iran, and the corruption, the rampant and blatant corruption of Donald Trump and the fact that Senate Republicans go right along with it and don't make any effort to stop it.”
The Cook Political Report shift comes as Trump’s public approval ratings continue to fall. A Reuters/Ipsos poll from earlier this week found 33% of voters approve of the job Trump is doing and 64% disapprove.