Did Trump's DC Takeover Cut Crime? What One Year of Data Shows

Last week, the FBI said on Facebook that federal law enforcement had made "nearly 15,000 arrests" since last August as part of "Operation Make D.C. Safe and Beautiful," and that these efforts had "brought about an unprecedented level of safety and security for those who live, work, and visit our nation's capital." According to preliminary figures from the MPD, accurate as of August 10, total crime is down 20 percent in the year-to-date compared with 2025, with property crime seeing a decline of 23 percent driven by a 53-percent drop in motor vehicle theft and a 37 percent decline in "Theft from Auto." However, while homicides are down 31 percent, violent crime has seen a slight increase of 3 percent. This is thanks to a significant increase (41 percent) in the number of assaults with a dangerous weapon that have been recorded, as well as a 2 percent increase in cases of sex abuse, despite a 15 percent decline in the number of robberies. A May analysis by the nonpartisan Niskanen Center found that the deployment of the National Guard to D.C. was associated with a significant decline in petty property crime, but had "no measurable effect" on violent crime.