U.S. Missile Shortage Sparks Global Security Fears

The U.S. has rapidly depleted its military capabilities in the Iran operation, with its core air defense system, the Patriot missile inventory, falling below 1,700 units, the New York Times (NYT) reported on the 8th (local time). Consequently, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine has judged that military options against Iran are reaching their limits due to ammunition depletion and is seeking an "exit strategy," while the Pentagon has reportedly pressured defense industries to expedite weapon production. U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly labeled reports on "ammunition shortages" as "treason" and ordered the identification of leakers, but behind the scenes, urgent efforts appear to be underway to address the issue. This is because the shortage is raising concerns about a chain reaction of security vacuums not only in the Iranian battlefield but also in Europe and the Korean Peninsula.

The U.S. military used over 1,500 Patriot missiles (about 46%) since the operation against Iran began in February, with remaining stockpiles now estimated at fewer than 1,700 units, according to the NYT. Earlier, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a foreign policy and security think tank, projected that the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile inventory, 80% of which has been exhausted, would take over three years to recover to pre-Iran conflict levels. The U.S. military is known to have used over 850 Tomahawk cruise missiles and over 1,000 Patriot/THAAD missiles each in the first month of the Iran operation alone.

Trump has long dismissed reports on weapon shortages as "baseless rumors" and on the 6th posted on Truth Social, "Leakers who spread treasonous remarks to the media will face long prison sentences." However, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on the 7th that Trump ordered a new investigation into ammunition stockpiles to verify the accuracy of the reserves he had been briefed on. A government official said the president had been "under great stress for weeks" due to the shortage reports, with "negative headlines driving him mad." After reports emerged that Trump questioned Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, asking, "I thought the ammunition issue had already been resolved," the White House denied it.

Citing U.S. officials, the NYT reported that as the Pentagon shifts surveillance and air defense assets from Asia to the Middle East, U.S. Forces Korea could become more vulnerable in the event of a war with North Korea. The Patriot, a surface-to-air missile with an interception altitude of 15-40 km, along with THAAD (40-150 km) and Cheongung-II (15-20 km), forms a core component of the South Korea-U.S. joint air defense network against North Korean nuclear and missile threats. U.S. Forces Korea operates around 10 Patriot batteries dispersed across Osan, Pyeongtaek, and other locations, but it was revealed that South Korea and the U.S. had agreed to relocate some Patriot batteries to the Middle East last year, sparking domestic concerns about air defense gaps.

Even with pressure from defense authorities, replenishing depleted Patriot stockpiles is estimated to take over two years given the production speed of defense contractors. Consequently, NATO allies in Europe are considering diversifying their weapon procurement sources. For Ukraine, which is fighting Russia, the number of air defense missiles supported by the West this year has plummeted to one-third of the previous year's level. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated on the 5th, "Seventeen people died from Russian missiles today; their lives could have been saved with interceptors." On the 9th, he specifically mentioned South Korea, saying, "We hope for urgent support for air defense systems and are ready to cooperate in the drone sector."

Tom Karako, a senior researcher at CSIS, told the NYT that the missile shortage is a "generational destruction of conventional deterrence" and will "significantly influence the decision-making of China and Russia" as it will take years to recover stockpiles.

(This article has been translated by Upstage Solar AI.)