Report on US missile shortage raises concerns over South Korea's air defenses

Concerns are growing in South Korea over the possibility that the United States could draw down key air defense assets on the Korean Peninsula, following a New York Times report that US missile stockpiles have been depleted by the war with Iran.

The New York Times reported Saturday, citing senior US officials and people briefed on weapons stockpiles, that supplies of key precision weapons and air defense missiles had fallen to "troubling levels."

According to the report, more than 1,500 Patriot air defense interceptors have been used during the Iran war, leaving the current US inventory at fewer than 1,700. Replenishing the missiles could take more than two years even with accelerated production efforts, it said.

The figures have not been independently confirmed, and the Pentagon has pushed back against reports of weapons shortages.

A Pentagon spokesperson was quoted by the report as saying the United States has "everything required to strike at the time and place of the president's choosing."

Patriot is a key US air and missile defense system designed to intercept aircraft, cruise missiles and tactical ballistic missiles, serving as a lower-tier component of the US military's multi-layered missile defense architecture.

South Korea hosts USFK-operated Patriot batteries and also operates its own Patriot systems, along with the domestically developed Cheongung-II, or M-SAM II, as part of its Korea Air and Missile Defense system.

Of particular concern for Seoul, the NYT reported that hundreds of advanced air defense interceptors had already been sent to the Middle East from South Korea and elsewhere in Asia.

A US official cited by the report said US troops in South Korea could become more vulnerable in the event of a war with North Korea because the Pentagon had redirected tactical surveillance assets to the Middle East and withdrawn air defense assets.

Asked whether US air defense assets stationed in South Korea could be affected, Seoul's Defense Ministry said it was not in a position to comment on the operation of US military assets and referred questions to US authorities.

US Forces Korea also declined to comment on the reported movement or possible withdrawal of assets, citing operational security.

Shin Beom-chul, director of the Center for Security Strategy at the Sejong Institute and a former South Korean vice defense minister, said the possibility of additional US assets being moved out of South Korea could not be ruled out, but cautioned against viewing such a move as necessarily weakening US defense commitments.

"Those assets could be moved out, but that in itself is not necessarily something we should be overly concerned about," Shin said. "It can also demonstrate that US strategic flexibility is functioning properly."

"That also means the United States has the ability to rapidly deploy its forces to the Korean Peninsula should a contingency occur here," he added.

Shin cautioned against judging missile defense capability solely by the number of interceptors available.

"You cannot be assured of missile defense just because you have a certain number of interceptors," he said. "If North Korea possesses more missiles than the number you can intercept, the defense can eventually be overwhelmed."

Earlier concerns

Similar questions over the availability of US missile defense assets arose in March, during the initial phase of the Iran war.

US Patriot batteries at several bases were reportedly moved to Osan Air Base in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, while all six launchers of the US THAAD battery deployed in Seongju were also moved to Osan.

THAAD is designed to intercept ballistic missiles at altitudes of roughly 40 to 150 kilometers, providing an upper-tier layer of missile defense that South Korea does not currently possess with its own systems.

The THAAD launchers themselves were not sent to the Middle East. They returned to Seongju in North Gyeongsang Province after reportedly unloading interceptor missiles at Osan, and all six were confirmed back at the Seongju base by June.

In April, USFK Commander Gen. Xavier Brunson told a Senate hearing that the THAAD system remained on the peninsula, while saying that "munitions" had been moved forward and were awaiting further transfer.