Greg Abbott Just Single Digits Ahead of Democrat in Texas, Polling Shows

Texas Governor Greg Abbott is leading Democratic state Representative Gina Hinojosa by 6 percentage points in the Texas gubernatorial race, according to a new poll released roughly three months before voters decide whether to grant the Republican a fourth term or elect the state's first Democratic governor in more than 30 years. Democrats have long sought to make inroads in Texas, which has not elected a Democratic governor since Ann Richards won in 1990 and has backed the Republican presidential nominee in every election since 1980. Democrats have been eyeing Texas as a potential swing state for years without much success, but the party believes President Donald Trump's declining national approval rating could fuel momentum, allowing them to be more competitive in several conservative-leaning states, such as Texas, where there is also a high-profile Senate race. The polling is tighter overall and better demographically for Democrats than in 2022 or 2024, Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, told Newsweek. While Republicans point to their decades-long hold on statewide office as evidence of Texas' conservative lean, some political analysts say the state's political landscape is a bit different today than in past gubernatorial races. Mark Jones, a politics professor at Rice University, told Newsweek that one major difference between 2022 and 2026 is that in 2022 Abbott was boosted by strong anti-Biden tailwinds while in 2026 he is being buffeted by anti-Trump headwinds. However, he noted that the Democratic candidates are different this cycle, which could further favor Republicans, calling 2022 Democratic candidate Beto O'Rourke the Texas Democratic Party's highest quality candidate. Whereas Hinojosa is less well known, funded and charismatic and is politically even further to the left of the median Texas voter than Beto on the ideological spectrum. Jones said that while Abbott has his work cut out for him, Texas is a light red state where candidates who are able to retain the overwhelming support of GOP voters, such as Abbott, are well-positioned for victory in November. Hinojosa told Newsweek on Wednesday afternoon, Our campaign is getting stronger by the day because my plan is simple: save public schools and put money in your pocket by ending the Greg Abbott Corruption Tax. For 12 years, working Texans have suffered from Abbott's record of putting his billionaire donors before working Texans. Newsweek reached out to Abbott's campaign for comment via email. What the New Poll Shows A late July Texas Southern University poll of 1,200 likely Texan voters found Abbott leading with 49 percent to Hinojosa's 43 percent. About 5 percent of voters were undecided, and 3 percent were backing Libertarian Pat Dixon. The governor received a 48 percent favorable rating and a 51 percent unfavorable rating among likely voters. Hinojosa, meanwhile, posted a 37 percent favorable rating and a 28 percent unfavorable rating, though far fewer voters were familiar with her. Nearly all likely voters, 99 percent, said they know enough about Abbott to form an opinion, compared with 65 percent who said the same of Hinojosa. Where Abbott has a potential image problem, Hinojosa presently has a voter knowledge problem, Texas State University professor Wallace Golding told Newsweek, pointing to the majority of the electorate having no opinion of her. The poll highlights the demographic and generational divides shaping the Texas governor's race. Abbott leads Hinojosa among white likely voters by 24 points, 58 percent to 34 percent, while Hinojosa holds a 14-point advantage among Latino voters, 55 percent to 41 percent, and a 59-point lead among Black voters, 74 percent to 15 percent. The Democrat also leads among women by 11 points, 52 percent to 41 percent, while Abbott holds a 24-point advantage among men, 58 percent to 34 percent. The poll was conducted between July 27-30 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points. Texas Governor's Race The Texas governor's race is one of 36 gubernatorial contests taking place nationwide in 2026, a cycle that includes several other high-profile open-seat races in states such as Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada and Georgia. Abbott is a strong conservative and staunch ally of Trump who was first elected to the state's top office in 2014 and reelected in 2018 and 2022. A fourth term would put Abbott on track to become the longest-serving governor in Texas history, surpassing Rick Perry, who served from 2000 to 2015. Hinojosa, a lawyer who was sworn in to the Texas House in 2017, secured the Democratic nomination in March. She told Newsweek in a Wednesday statement, As I travel the state, Republicans, Independents, and Democrats are taking a stand to rebuild the American Dream in Texas with an economy that works for the people, not the billionaires. The incumbent is viewed by forecasters and prediction markets as a strong favorite for reelection, with the Cook Political Report ranking the race as solid Republican, though polls suggest the race could be closer than his 11-point victory over O'Rourke in 2022. In 2026, Hinojosa does not have nearly the name recognition or the money that O'Rourke had, but the political climate is much more favorable for Democrats, so she will likely run closer to Abbott than O'Rourke did, Calvin Jillson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University, told Newsweek. This is shaping up to be a good Democrat year, so any substantial number of Republicans defecting could narrow the margins for Abbott, Jillson said. The high-profile governor's race comes at the same time as the state's closely watched Senate race, where polling finds Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico neck-and-neck. Republicans hold a narrow Senate majority, so Democrats are hoping to flip at least four seats to gain control of the chamber, with strategists eyeing the Texas seat as a pickup opportunity. The state has not elected a Democratic U.S. senator since 1988. Multiple recent surveys have indicated a highly competitive contest between Paxton, who has been endorsed by Trump, and Talarico, the Democrat who has served as state representative since 2018 and was previously a middle school teacher. All of the statewide races are politically linked. As one does well, they all do well, Rottinghaus told Newsweek. Among those voting for Abbott, about 89 percent are backing Paxton, 3 percent are backing James Talarico; six percent are undecided. Almost everyone backing Hinojosa plans on supporting Talarico, 98 percent, with 2 percent undecided, the poll found. The question is whether a voter deciding against Paxton is deciding against Paxton as a Republican or against him based on his personal baggage, Jillson said. Jones noted that the combination of a very unpopular Donald Trump and a high-profile U.S. Senate race where the Democratic candidate has a realistic prospect for victory and which will motivate Democratic voters to turn out, creates a political environment where Abbott still has his work cut out for him and will have give 110 percent between now and November 3. What Other Polls Show in the Governor's Race Most polls show Abbott leading the race, albeit by a smaller lead than in 2022. A new Texas Public Opinion Research poll of 1,048 likely Texas voters finds Abbott leading Hinojosa 45 percent to 42 percent, with about 10 percent of voters undecided. Hinojosa leads Abbott among independents by 5 percentage points and among moderates by 18 points. She also holds sizable advantages among Black and Latino voters, leading by 49 points and 38 points, respectively. Abbott, meanwhile, leads among college-educated voters by 9 points and among white voters by 29 points. The poll was conducted from July 15 to July 17 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. A New York Times/Siena College poll of 656 likely voters surveyed from June 19 to June 27 found Abbott with the backing of 51 percent of voters and Hinojosa with 44 percent. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. Abbott had a 7-point lead over Hinojosa in a University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll conducted from June 5 to June 12. The poll of 1,200 registered voters found Abbott up 47 percent to her 40 percent, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points. A June poll from Reconnaissance Market Research, the Siena Research Institute and Texas A&M University points to a potentially close race but gives Abbott an advantage. The governor received 49 percent support in the poll compared to Hinojosa's 44 percent. It polled 807 likely voters from June 1 to June 4 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. A Texas Public Opinion Research poll that surveyed 1,670 likely voters on May 27 and May 28 found Abbott leading by 5 points with 46 percent compared to Hinojosa's 41 percent. A Public Policy Polling survey, which was conducted among 643 registered voters on May 22 and May 23, showed him up four points with 48 percent to Hinojosa's 44 percent. A poll from the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center showed Abbott up 6 points with 49 percent to Hinojosa's 43 percent. It surveyed 1,223 likely voters from April 22 to May 6. Prediction markets continue to place Abbott's odds of winning above Hinojosa's. As of Wednesday afternoon, Polymarket gave him an 89 percent chance of winning, while Kalshi put his odds at about 87 percent. Hinojosa's chances stood at 11 percent on Polymarket and roughly 13 percent on Kalshi. Abbott's Fundraising Advantage Abbott benefits from high name recognition and strong fundraising. He entered the race with $106 million in the bank, reported The Texas Tribune. Hinojosa is less well known than O'Rourke was in 2022, due to his 2018 Senate and presidential bids. Campaign finance filings with the Texas Ethics Commission show that Texans for Greg Abbott, the governor's principal campaign committee, has spent more than $54.5 million during the 2026 election cycle. It also says he has over $67.2 million in cash on hand. Hinojosa's total expenditures are a little less than $4 million. She has about $3 million in cash on hand, per the filings reviewed by Newsweek. Jones also noted that the two races will benefit from shared funding. The principal impact of the U.S. Senate race on the gubernatorial contest will be the infusion of at least $100 million additional dollars into the campaign efforts of Texas Democrats, primarily in support of Talarico, but which will serve as a rising tide to raise all Democratic boats, including the S.S. Hinojosa, he said. Texas voters will head to the polls in November to decide whether to grant Abbott a fourth term or elect a Democrat to the governor's mansion for the first time in more than three decades.