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James Talarico Support From Texas Independents Compared to Ken Paxton—Poll

Newsweek · back to the audit
Democratic state Representative James Talarico held a 40-point lead among independent voters over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in a new poll of the Texas U.S. Senate race released on Tuesday.

The poll from Texas Southern University's Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center showed Talarico leading Paxton by 2 points, 47 percent to 45 percent. Another 2 percent supported Libertarian candidate Ted Brown, while 6 percent were undecided. It surveyed 1,200 likely voters from July 27-30, 2026, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.

Among independents, Talarico's support stood at 63 percent, while 23 percent said they planned to back Paxton.

This marks a significant shift from 2024. Two years ago, Trump won Texas independents by just a single point over former Vice President Kamala Harris; Democratic Senate candidate Colin Allred won independents by 5 points over Republican Senator Ted Cruz, according to CNN exit polling.

Talarico has also coalesced support among Democratic voters, with 97 percent of them saying they plan to vote for him in November. Meanwhile, only 85 percent of Republicans said they plan to vote for Paxton, a sign that he still has work to unite the party after he defeated incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn in the primary election.

Talarico led Paxton by 67 points among Black voters, 79 percent to 12 percent, and 19 points among Latino voters, according to the poll.

Paxton, however, led Talarico among white voters by 14 points, 53 percent to 39 percent, according to the poll.

The TSU poll is the third major survey Talarico has led in recent days. A Fox News poll found Talarico up 3 points over Paxton, 51 percent to 48 percent. It surveyed 1,006 registered voters from July 23-27, 2026 and was conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Meanwhile, a Texas Public Opinion Research survey showed Talarico up 5 points, 45 percent to 40 percent. It surveyed 1,048 likely voters from July 15-17, 2026. TPOR is directed by a former Democratic candidate, Luke Warford.

Prediction markets have tightened over the past month. On Tuesday, Kalshi gave Paxton a 53 percent chance of defeating Talarico, down from a 59 percent chance one month earlier. Polymarket, meanwhile, gave Paxton a 52 percent chance, down from a 55 percent chance one month earlier.