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James Talarico Leads Ken Paxton in New Poll, but It's Not Over Yet

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A new poll shows Texas Democrat Senate candidate James Talarico slightly leading Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton as the two candidates battle it out to replace incumbent Sen. John Cornyn.

From Fox News: President Donald Trump won the Lone Star state by nearly 14 percentage points in 2024, but a new Fox News Poll of Texas registered voters suggests this year's Senate race is far less settled. Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton has yet to fully unify the GOP despite the president's endorsement in the GOP primary against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn.

In addition, more voters are concerned Paxton lacks the character to serve than worry Democratic challenger James Talarico is too extreme, and more Democrats than Republicans are extremely motivated to vote (by 7 points) and extremely interested in the midterms (by 6).

Those dynamics give Talarico a 3-point edge over Paxton (51% vs. 48%) in the Senate contest (within the survey's margin of sampling error).

Talarico's advantage in the race grows to 6 points among both extremely motivated and extremely interested voters (53% vs. 47% in each group).

Most independents (68%) and virtually all Democrats support Talarico (98%), while fewer Republicans are unified behind Paxton (89%).

In part, that's because one quarter of non-MAGA Republicans back Talarico (24%).

At this point, it's anybody's race if these numbers hold. Previous polls have shown similar results, with several showing Paxton with a slight lead over Talarico.