Trump Hit With Shock Poll in Crucial Senate Race

It's the third consecutive conservative poll to spell doom for the president.

Ken Paxton, Donald Trump's endorsed candidate in the Texas Senate race, is trailing his Democratic rival in a conservative poll.

Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leads the scandal-plagued Texas attorney general 47 percent to 45 percent, according to a survey of 1,200 likely voters by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University.

It's the third consecutive conservative poll to show Talarico leading Paxton ahead of November's crucial midterm election. Last week, a Fox News poll showed the progressive Democrat leading Paxton by three points (51 percent to 48 percent) while a Texas Public Opinion Research survey had Talarico ahead 45 percent to 40 percent.

While Talarico's lead over Paxton in the latest poll is slim, the results contain several warning signs for the Texas attorney general.

One is that 57 percent of likely voters view Paxton unfavorably, compared with 47 percent for Talarico.

Among white likely voters, Paxton holds a 14-point lead over Talarico, 53 percent to 39 percent.

However, that margin is considered low for a Republican candidate in a state where Trump won white voters by 33 points in the 2024 election, as Axios noted. Trump also won Hispanic voters in Texas by 10 points two years ago, whereas Talarico now holds a 19-point lead over Paxton among that group (57 percent to 38).

Nick Maddux, a senior Paxton adviser, told the Daily Beast that "the only poll that matters" is the election on Nov. 3.

"Talarico's campaign will end up exactly where every Democrat before him has ended up in Texas: a pipe dream," Maddux said.