Progressives' Odds of Defeating Moderate Democrats in 4 Primary Races

Democratic primaries in states like Michigan and Missouri present opportunities for progressives to defeat moderates on Tuesday, as the political left hopes to build on its success in earlier races.
Michigan's 13th District is based in Detroit, the largest city in Michigan. Thanedar, a businessman first elected in 2022, is facing a challenge from Donavan McKinney, a progressive backed by the organization Justice Democrats.
Although progressives have rallied behind McKinney, Thanedar has also built up a fairly progressive record in Congress. McKinney is still seen as the more left-leaning candidate and is a member of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA).
Only one poll of the race has been made public, coming from the progressive organization Data for Progress. It showed Thanedar up four points over McKinney, 46 percent to 42 percent. It surveyed 324 likely voters from July 9-15, 2026.
Prediction markets favor McKinney, who had an 88 percent chance of winning on both Kalshi and Polymarket as of Tuesday morning.
McKinney told Newsweek on Tuesday he is "super optimistic" about his chances of winning the primary. He said there is a "lot of energy on the ground" and momentum for his campaign in Detroit.
"People feel like they're being left behind. They don't feel heard. They don't feel like their needs are being addressed."
"This is about the many versus the money." McKinney said.
Thanedar told Newsweek on Tuesday that voters in the district "just want someone who will fight for them," touting his support for policies like Medicare for All, free childcare and higher education and student loan forgiveness.