El-Sayed vs. Stevens Chances of Beating GOP's Mike Rogers in Michigan—Polls

A new poll released just days before Michigan's Democratic Senate primary shows Abdul El-Sayed opening a double-digit lead over Representative Haley Stevens, the latest sign of a late swing in a race where polling shows Stevens performing more strongly against Republican Mike Rogers in November.
The general election polling largely favors Stevens over Republican Mike Rogers. A Glengariff Group survey conducted for the Michigan Education Association and Business Leaders for Michigan found Stevens leading Rogers 47 percent to 45 percent among likely November voters, while El-Sayed trailed Rogers 48 percent to 41 percent.
Another Glengariff poll, conducted for the Detroit Regional Chamber, gave Stevens a narrow 45.2 percent to 43.8 percent edge over Rogers, while El-Sayed trailed 46.9 percent to 40.1 percent. A Mitchell Research survey for the Michigan Information and Research Service similarly found Rogers ahead of El-Sayed 41 percent to 38 percent, with Stevens the only Democrat running close enough to make the race competitive.
One exception came from a Data for Progress memo prepared for the Working Families Party. It found El-Sayed narrowly leading Rogers 47 percent to 46 percent, while Stevens trailed Rogers 46 percent to 45 percent. The poll also found El-Sayed with stronger favorability ratings than Stevens and suggested he was more resilient to negative messaging.
The wide variation in recent polling has drawn skepticism from outside the race.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the general election as a toss-up, with both parties viewing the Michigan seat as critical to Senate control.