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El-Sayed leads Stevens by 15 points in Michigan Senate primary: Poll

The Hill · back to the audit
Progressive Abdul El-Sayed is leading Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) by 15 points ahead of next week's Democratic primary for Michigan's open Senate seat, according to a new poll.

An Emerson College Polling/WLNS/WOODTV survey released Thursday showed El-Sayed handily defeating Stevens in the primary with 54 percent support to Stevens's 39 percent. A separate 6 percent of respondents said they were undecided while about 2 percent backed state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D), who dropped out of the race earlier this summer.

When factoring in undecided Democratic voters who were asked who they lean toward, El-Sayed rose to 57 percent support while Stevens sat at 41 percent. A separate 2 percent of respondents supported McMorrow.

El-Sayed and Stevens are running for the Democratic Senate nomination next Tuesday to take on former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) to succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.). Although Peters, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and former Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) have backed Stevens, El-Sayed, a former Wayne County public health official, has held is own in the toss-up race.

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted that El-Sayed, who is backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), holds the upper hand with younger voters while Stevens performs better with older voters.

"There is a clear age divide in the Democratic Primary: voters under 50 break for El-Sayed by 42 percentage points, 67 percent to 25 percent, and that gap tightens among voters in their 50s to a 12-point lead, and voters over 60 flip to Stevens by a 14-point margin, 53 percent to 39 percent," Kimball said in a press release.

However, Stevens leads El-Sayed among Black voters with 58 percent support to his 38 percent. When undecided voters are factored in, Stevens remains ahead by 30 points, with 63 percent support to El-Sayed's 33 percent.

The moderate faction of the party has become increasingly anxious about El-Sayed securing the Democratic nomination, worrying his progressive politics may hinder his chances in the general election against Rogers. And some recent polling backs up that view.

A recent Michigan Education survey showed Rogers beating El-Sayed by 10 points in a hypothetical match-up, with 11 percent of respondents undecided. Meanwhile, the survey showed Stevens narrowly edging out Rogers with close to 46 percent support to Rogers's 45 percent. A separate 9 percent of respondents said they were undecided.

Because the polling between Rogers and Stevens falls within the survey's margin of error of 4 points, the two are essentially tied.

Thursday's Emerson College Polling/WLNS/WOODTV poll was conducted between July 26 and July 27, with 700 likely Democratic primary voters surveyed. The margin of error is 3.7 points.