El-Sayed lead over Stevens narrows in Michigan Senate primary with large focus on Israel

DETROIT — Former county health official Abdul El-Sayed's lead over U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens in the Michigan Democratic Senate primary has narrowed as votes continue to be tallied. With 92% of ballots counted, the progressive El-Sayed was ahead of establishment favorite Stevens by 48.8% to 47.2%, according to the Associated Press.

The closely watched Democratic Senate primary has become a national test of the party's divisions over Israel. Stevens, a pro-Israel moderate, and El-Sayed, who has made criticism of Israel a focal point of his campaign, are vying to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters and advance to a November matchup against Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers. El-Sayed is hoping to add to the string of progressive victories in Democratic primaries across the country.

The mood started out jubilant Tuesday evening at El-Sayed's election night watch party at a concert hall in Detroit. Over 200 supporters cheered as a large projector displayed his early lead in the race, though only single digits of the results were in. But as more of the mail-in vote was tallied, the crowd started to boo as his lead eroded.

Hasan Piker, the influential left-wing streamer and strident Israel critic whose campaigning with El-Sayed this spring touched off a firestorm of controversy, was present and livestreaming from the scene.

When asked by the Jewish Telegraphic Agency what he would say to Jewish voters who feel El-Sayed does not share their concerns about antisemitism, Piker replied, "Abdul El-Sayed definitely cares about antisemitism. Look, we're Muslim Americans, okay? This is something that we deeply understand."

"That's part of the reason why it makes it all the more sad that there's so much crosstalk and so much misinformation out there," Piker continued. "We oppose Israel in somewhat of a Jewish tradition of anti-fascism. It's nothing different. It has nothing to do with Jewish people at all, and everything to do with all the harm that has happened so far."

Also in attendance were Colorado Democratic House nominee Melat Kiros and Pennsylvania Democratic House nominee Chris Rabb, two of the progressives who recently won their primaries; both had inveighed against AIPAC and Israel throughout their campaigns.

Scattered figures throughout the crowd wore keffiyehs and other pro-Palestinian gear. One supporter clad in a campaign shirt for New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani also sported a red "Make Palestine Free Again" hat, styled in the manner of a pro-Trump "Make America Great Again" hat.

Notably absent from the night's festivities was El-Sayed's most prominent Jewish supporter in the state, former U.S. Rep. Andy Levin. El-Sayed's campaign confirmed Levin wasn't in attendance because he was traveling. Levin, a member of the state's high-profile Democratic political family, had continued to advocate for El-Sayed right up until the polls closed.

Barbara Weinberg Barefield, who had campaigned for El-Sayed's "Jews for Abdul" group, said she was feeling "really excited" as she watched the polls displayed at the watch party.

"People in the world are looking at this campaign, and it's going to show that you can't buy your candidates. They have to win," Weinberg Barefield said. "They have to win because of their positions, because of their humanity, because of their messages, their care for people, and you can't just have money pour from private corporations and AIPAC."

The race was tight in Oakland County, the heavily Jewish suburban Detroit region that Stevens represents in Congress. With 76% of the votes counted there, Stevens led El-Sayed by 2.3 percentage points with some 4,000 votes — about the same as what state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, who abandoned her own Senate campaign weeks ago, was drawing in the county.

The race is widely seen as a must-win for Democrats in their bid to retake control of the Senate, raising the stakes of a primary that increasingly focused on which candidate would be better poised to defeat Rogers. Recent polling in the race shows that Rogers has a slight lead over El-Sayed, while Stevens polled slightly ahead of the GOP candidate.

For many Jewish Democrats in the state, the race has also become a test of El-Sayed's approach to Israel, with his rhetoric about the war in Gaza and repeated attacks on AIPAC spending in the race alarming voters who might otherwise be drawn to his progressive politics.

Speaking to The New Yorker days before the primary, El-Sayed appeared to strike a more nuanced tone on his Israel views than he has in many of his rallies.

"I believe in a process that offers a free Palestinian people the equal rights, dignity and self-determination that a free Jewish Israeli people ought to have," the candidate told The New Yorker's David Remnick. "And I will support whatever the outcome is that a free Palestinian people and a free Jewish Israeli people decide is the right outcome. If that's two states, great, I'm for it. If it's one state, great, I'm for that — if it's this 'land for all' model, or 23 states, or whatever it is they decide."

With El-Sayed leading Stevens by as much as 16 points in polls going into the primaries, the race could mark the latest victory for the Democratic Party's emergent progressive wing, which has seen a string of primary wins in races across the country, several of which have elevated candidates sharply critical of AIPAC and Israel.

The fight has particular resonance in Michigan, which is home to sizable Jewish and Arab American populations and has emerged as a battleground for Democratic divisions over Israel since the Hamas attack on Oct. 7, 2023, and ensuing war in Gaza.

Indeed, the starkest divide between the candidates themselves has been over Israel.

Stevens has maintained a strong record of support for Israel throughout her four terms in Congress, while El-Sayed has repeatedly accused the country of committing genocide in Gaza and often framed U.S. funding for Israel as money that should be diverted to domestic priorities. He has also said the Israeli government is as "evil" as Hamas and questioned whether Israel should be a Jewish state.

El-Sayed has also faced scrutiny from Stevens and many Jewish leaders in the state for campaigning alongside Piker, who has faced accusations of antisemitism.

El-Sayed additionally appalled some Michigan Jews with his remarks following the March attack on Temple Israel in West Bloomfield, Michigan, when he said "hurt people do hurt people" of the attacker who targeted the synagogue when preschool was in session, and who had family who were killed in an Israeli strike on Lebanon.

Those divisions have been amplified by AIPAC's record-breaking spending in the race. The group's super PAC has spent over $31 million to support Stevens, according to AdImpact. El-Sayed has made the lobby of his most frequent campaign targets.

Many Jewish Democrats in the state have rallied behind Stevens, with some warning that a potential El-Sayed victory could push them to reconsider their allegiance to the party and support Rogers in the general election.

El-Sayed, 41, is a former director of the Detroit Health Department who first rose to prominence during his unsuccessful 2018 bid for Michigan governor, when he ran with the backing of a host of progressive leaders. In the Senate race, he has campaigned on a platform emphasizing affordability and healthcare while railing against money in politics, particularly AIPAC.

Stevens, 43, has represented Michigan's 11th Congressional District, which spans much of Oakland County, since 2019. A former chief of staff for the Obama administration's auto rescue task force, she has focused on affordability issues while emphasizing her ability to win in competitive territory.

El-Sayed has drawn endorsements from Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Reps. Ro Khanna and Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, as well as Jewish Voice for Peace Action and Pal Pac, a pro-Palestinian political action committee.

Stevens, meanwhile, has been endorsed by New York Sen. Chuck Schumer, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, the Michigan Democratic Jewish Caucus and the Jewish Democratic Council of America.