El-Sayed vs. Stevens Chances of Beating GOP's Mike Rogers in Michigan—Polls

# El-Sayed vs. Stevens Chances of Beating GOP's Mike Rogers in Michigan—Polls

A new poll released just days before Michigan's Democratic Senate primary shows Abdul El-Sayed opening a double-digit lead over Representative Haley Stevens, the latest sign of a late swing in a race where polling shows Stevens performing more strongly against Republican Mike Rogers in November.

Two surveys conducted July 26 and 27 by Tavern Research and sponsored directly by the El-Sayed campaign found El-Sayed leading Stevens 48 percent to 37 percent in one and 46 percent to 36 percent in the other, days before Tuesday's primary. The two polls mark the largest margins El-Sayed has posted in any survey released so far in the race.

## What Other Polls Have Shown

The polling has steadily shifted in El-Sayed's favor over the past month, although much of that movement comes from surveys commissioned by Democratic-aligned groups.

A Tavern Research poll conducted July 6 and 7 showed El-Sayed, the former director of the Department of Health, Human, and Veterans Services of Wayne County, leading Stevens 41 percent to 38 percent.

A Data for Progress survey sponsored by American Priorities found him ahead 54 percent to 41 percent between July 10 and 14, while a Tulchin Research poll commissioned by Fighting for Michigan PAC put him up 56 percent to 40 percent between July 13 and 15.

The only independent poll released during that period told a different story. A Glengariff Group survey commissioned by The Detroit News and WDIV-TV, conducted July 8 to 11 without a campaign or advocacy sponsor, found Stevens leading El-Sayed 48 percent to 41 percent. No independent poll has been released since then to show whether the gains in campaign-backed surveys reflect a broader shift among Democratic primary voters.

The general election polling largely favors Stevens over Republican Mike Rogers. A Glengariff Group survey conducted for the Michigan Education Association and Business Leaders for Michigan found Stevens leading Rogers 47 percent to 45 percent among likely November voters, while El-Sayed trailed Rogers 48 percent to 41 percent.

Another Glengariff poll, conducted for the Detroit Regional Chamber, gave Stevens a narrow 45.2 percent to 43.8 percent edge over Rogers, while El-Sayed trailed 46.9 percent to 40.1 percent. A Mitchell Research survey for the Michigan Information and Research Service similarly found Rogers ahead of El-Sayed 41 percent to 38 percent, with Stevens the only Democrat running close enough to make the race competitive.

One exception came from a Data for Progress memo prepared for the Working Families Party. It found El-Sayed narrowly leading Rogers 47 percent to 46 percent, while Stevens trailed Rogers 46 percent to 45 percent. The poll also found El-Sayed with stronger favorability ratings than Stevens and suggested he was more resilient to negative messaging.