New Polling After McMorrow's Exit Shakes Up Michigan Senate Race

# New Polling After McMorrow's Exit Shakes Up Michigan Senate Race

When Mallory McMorrow suspended her Senate campaign in Michigan earlier this month, Democrats across the ideological spectrum assumed her departure would benefit Abdul El-Sayed, the progressive favorite who appeared closer to her politically.

Less than three weeks before primary day, the first public polling since her exit suggests the opposite may be happening.

Two surveys released over the past week have put Rep. Haley Stevens ahead of El-Sayed in the Democratic primary to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters, reversing an earlier trend that had shown El-Sayed, a former Detroit health director, with a narrow advantage. While political analysts caution that one round of polling is far from definitive, the results are scrambling expectations around one of the most consequential Senate races in the country.

McMorrow, a state senator, suspended her campaign on July 5. A Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll conducted July 8 through July 11 found Stevens leading El-Sayed 48% to 41% among likely Democratic primary voters. Another survey by Tavern Research also showed Stevens ahead by one point.

Before El-Sayed entered the race in April 2025, McMorrow was widely viewed as the Democrat best positioned to occupy the party's progressive lane. But El-Sayed—who has been endorsed by the United Auto Workers, Sen. Bernie Sanders and Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Rashida Tlaib—quickly established himself as the campaign's leading progressive voice, running on Medicare for All, organized labor, and an overhaul of U.S. policy toward Israel.

That left McMorrow struggling to carve out a distinct political identity between El-Sayed's insurgent campaign and Stevens' establishment-backed bid.

So far, McMorrow has not endorsed either Stevens or El-Sayed. On Monday, Peters, the retiring incumbent, formally endorsed Stevens.

A new Data for Progress poll commissioned by American Priorities, a pro-El-Sayed super PAC, shows him ahead by 13 points—though surveys sponsored by groups backing a specific candidate can often be less reliable.