DFP | WFP Michigan Senate Race Memorandum

**To:** Interested Parties **From:** Data for Progress **Date:** July 10th, 2026 **RE:** General Election Poll Shows Abdul El-Sayed Democrats' Strongest Option Against Mike Rogers

From June 15th to 22nd, 2026, Data for Progress conducted a survey of likely voters in Michigan. The survey found Abdul El-Sayed best positioned in a general election against Mike Rogers, leading narrowly 47-46% versus Haley Stevens, who trails 45-46%. Among general election voters, El-Sayed has stronger favorability, intensity of support, is more well known, and is more resilient after negative messaging than Haley Stevens.

First, the poll asked respondents of their views on each candidate running for the U.S. Senate seat in Michigan. Haley Stevens is the least popular candidate in the race, with a net favorability of -12, followed by Republican Mike Rogers at -8, with a plurality of voters saying they have an unfavorable view of both Stevens (40%) and Rogers (44%). El-Sayed, meanwhile, is viewed more favorably overall (34% favorable, 39% unfavorable - net -5%), and posts the highest share of voters with a very favorable opinion of him (21%), compared with 14% for Stevens and Rogers.

In a blind horse race ballot test, El-Sayed leads Rogers by one point, while Stevens trails the Republican by one point.

In addition to outperforming Stevens in the initial ballot, El-Sayed also holds advantages among key demographics: Independents (48% to 39% El-Sayed, 43% to 42% Stevens), young voters (59% to 35% El-Sayed, 50% to 38% Stevens), and Black voters (75% to 22% El-Sayed, 67% to 25% Stevens).

Following this, voters were provided with short biographies of each candidate running in the race. After reading through each biography, a majority of voters view both El-Sayed and Rogers favorably (53% and 52%, respectively). Meanwhile, Stevens is the only candidate viewed unfavorably by a slim majority (51%) of voters.

After reading candidates' biographies, El-Sayed maintains a narrow lead over Rogers, 48% to 46%, while Stevens is now tied at 46% to 46% with the Republican candidate. El-Sayed continues to overperform with Independents (52% to 38% El-Sayed, 44% to 40% Stevens), young voters (59% to 36% El-Sayed, 53% to 35% Stevens), and Black voters (75% to 22% El-Sayed, 70% to 22% Stevens).

Next, voters were provided with likely attacks against each candidate and asked to rate each statement's convincingness. El-Sayed's statement attacked him for being a far-left radical with ties to Hasan Piker, and being a candidate who would make headlines for the wrong reasons, not achieving results. Stevens showcased her as an establishment politician with ties to AIPAC, and Rogers showcased his affiliation with Donald Trump, branding him as a MAGA Republican.

A majority of voters found Stevens' (53%) and Rogers' (53%) statements very or somewhat convincing reasons to vote against each. Negative messaging against Abdul El-Sayed, meanwhile, is viewed as less convincing by a majority of voters (55%) as a reason to vote against him.

Finally, voters were provided with a final set of horse race questions and asked which candidate they would vote for. After attacks, El-Sayed maintains his lead over Rogers and continues to outperform Stevens in a head-to-head against Rogers overall and with Independents (51% to 39% El-Sayed, 45% to 41% Stevens), young voters (61% to 35% El-Sayed, 52% to 34% Stevens), and Black voters (71% to 23% El-Sayed, 70% to 22% Stevens).

These findings indicate El-Sayed is the strongest candidate to defeat Rogers in November's general election and that he is best positioned to withstand negative messaging.

## Survey Methodology

From June 15 to 22, 2026, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 709 likely voters in Michigan using SMS and webpanel respondents. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, geography, and recalled presidential vote. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error associated with the sample size is +/- 4 percentage points.