Democrats face most contentious – and crucial – test yet with Michigan primary

Democrats face most contentious – and crucial – test yet with Michigan primary

Voters are faced with the thorny question of electability: who can win this purple state in November and potentially push Democrats toward a US Senate majority?

At Chad Green's house in Davison, Michigan, a brood of baby chicks roamed around the idyllic green lawn as US senators pitched a couple dozen voters on why they should turn out for the hopeful one, Abdul El-Sayed.

Green, a retired federal firefighter, hosted a similar small gathering for Mallory McMorrow, who was running for the US Senate before she dropped out of the race in early July, narrowing the contest to El-Sayed, a progressive insurgent campaigning for universal healthcare, and US representative Haley Stevens, who has branded herself as a workhorse.

The Michigan primary is, perhaps, the most contentious Democratic primary this year – and a test for the party's future. Voters are weighing the policies and personalities of the candidates as they once again consider the thorny question of electability: who can win this purple state in November, and potentially push the party towards a majority in the Senate?

Recent surveys have shown El-Sayed pulling ahead. A nonpartisan Emerson poll this week of likely Democratic voters found 54% intended to vote for El-Sayed compared to 39% for Stevens, with a stark age divide. Voters under 50 broke for El-Sayed by 42 percentage points, while voters over 60 preferred Stevens by a 14-point margin, it showed. Independents were siding with El-Sayed by a 27-point margin.

El-Sayed, an epidemiologist who served in health director roles in Detroit and its county, counts leading progressive officials among his supporters, including US senators Elizabeth Warren and Chris Van Hollen, who rallied with him in Michigan last weekend alongside a host of representatives and former elected officials.

The winner of Tuesday's Democratic primary will face Mike Rogers, a former congressman from the state who was also the Republican nominee for US Senate in 2024, when he lost to Elissa Slotkin.

El-Sayed, often mentioned alongside democratic socialists who have won a string of party primaries ahead of this year's US midterm elections, is not himself a democratic socialist: he says he is a "capitalist who understands how capitalism works", and wants to regulate monopolies and oligopolies.

But the race has become a key focal point in the rise of the left flank of the Democratic party, and its potential limits – especially after a wave of wins in solidly blue districts across the country.

More than $40m has poured into the race from outside groups supporting Stevens or attacking El-Sayed, including from groups associated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (Aipac), a pro-Israel lobby. AdImpact shows more than $60m in ad reservations and spending to benefit Stevens.