El-Sayed takes poll lead over Stevens days before Michigan primary

Abdul El-Sayed is entering the final weekend of Michigan's Democratic Senate primary with a double-digit advantage over Representative Haley Stevens, according to a new poll that adds to signs of late momentum for the progressive candidate. El-Sayed leads Stevens 54.8 percent to 45.2 percent in The Public Sentiment Institute's projected result for the August 4 Democratic primary. The poll suggests younger and more progressive Democrats are powering El-Sayed's lead, while older voters remain Stevens' best route to a closer result.

The race is being closely watched because Gary Peters is retiring. President Donald Trump carried Michigan in 2024, and Republicans, who view the seat as one of their clearest Senate pickup opportunities, have not won a U.S. Senate race there since 1994.

The contest has become a test of two theories about how Democrats can win in a swing state. Stevens' allies argue she is the safer November candidate, with a record in Congress and support from much of the party establishment. El-Sayed's supporters argue that Democrats need a candidate who can energize younger voters, progressives and voters frustrated by outside money in politics.

The TPSI result follows several late surveys showing El-Sayed ahead. Emerson College Polling/WLNS/WOODTV found him leading 54 percent to 39 percent among likely Democratic primary voters, with 6 percent undecided. Including undecided voters who leaned toward a candidate, El-Sayed led 57 percent to 41 percent. That survey also showed a sharp age divide. Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said voters under 50 broke for El-Sayed by 42 points, while voters over 60 favored Stevens by 14 points.

A Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll conducted by The Glengariff Group from July 8 to 11 found Stevens leading 48.2 percent to 41.4 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 points. That earlier result is why the race should not be described as settled. But the public polling since then has mostly moved toward El-Sayed, and the undecided share has fallen.

Outside spending has helped define the race. Mother Jones, citing federal records, reported that groups benefiting Stevens had accounted for more than $60 million in outside spending, compared with about $4.6 million for groups benefiting El-Sayed. It also reported that the AIPAC-affiliated United Democracy Project had spent more than $30 million backing Stevens.

TPSI's issue polling suggests that may be a liability with many Democratic primary voters. Among likely voters, 41.0 percent said accepting campaign contributions from a political action committee supporting Israel would make them much less likely to support a candidate, while another 14.8 percent said somewhat less likely.

Michigan is now set to answer one of the biggest Democratic questions of 2026: whether progressive energy can beat establishment backing in a must-win Senate battleground.