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What a D+11 Midterm Would Mean for Republicans' House Majority

Newsweek · back to the audit

A new national poll showing Democrats with an 11-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot would, if translated evenly across the House map, put dozens of Republican-held seats at risk and potentially hand Democrats a majority far larger than the one Republicans currently hold, a Newsweek analysis has found. If the 2024 House vote is treated as a Republican edge of roughly 2.6 points and the Emerson poll is treated as an 11-point Democratic advantage, the implied shift is about 13.6 percentage points toward Democrats. Applying this logic using the 2024 House of Representatives vote as a baseline, 36 Republican-held districts would flip, producing a hypothetical House of 251 Democrats and 184 Republicans. Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said: 'Driving the Democrats' significant lead on the ballot are women voters, who break for the Democratic candidate by a 27-point margin, 56 percent to 39 percent, while men are more split: 49 percent support the Democrats and 44 percent the Republican.'