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Democrats favored to win House, underdogs in Senate 100 days out

The Hill · back to the audit

Democrats are favored to win the House but are slight underdogs in the fight for the Senate with 100 days to go before the midterms, according to the latest forecast from Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ). DDHQ forecasts Democrats winning a 15-seat advantage in a 225-210 House, while Republicans narrowly retain power in a 50-50 Senate with Vice President Vance as the tiebreaker vote. As of late July, Democrats had a 60 percent probability of winning the lower chamber, while Republicans had a 60 percent chance of holding the Senate. That represents a tightening in the fight for the House since the start of the month, when the model indicated Democrats could have as much as a 25-seat advantage. 'The challenge for Republicans is the Iranian conflict is heating up again,' Skelley said, pointing to this past week's news that gas prices were on the rise as the conflict continued to build. 'This is politically very bad for the GOP.'