Inside the House GOP reconciliation gamble

With the political winds howling in their face, House Republicans are gearing up to send the Pentagon tens of billions of dollars in new funding for a seemingly endless Iran war that's bottoming out in public opinion polls.

The new Pentagon money may not be offset by spending cuts elsewhere, serving up echoes of the Middle East conflicts that raged during George W. Bush's presidency. Those wars dogged Republicans for years.

"We haven't made any of those decisions yet," House Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) said Monday when we asked if the $67 billion that Republicans want for the Defense Department needs to be offset by cuts elsewhere.

Meanwhile, the House floor remains frozen, as Speaker Mike Johnson is still torn between warring factions inside the House Republican Conference.

Reconciliation 3.0. Republicans are under tremendous pressure from the White House to pass a reconciliation bill. Depending on who you ask, the president and administration officials want somewhere between $67 billion and $350 billion in additional Pentagon funds. The lower figure is far more realistic.

Plus, the SAVE America Act, which Trump has been pushing for months, may have a home in a reconciliation bill.

But the GOP leadership has a very narrow path to getting a budget resolution through the House.

First, top Republicans seem to have no plans to offset the tens of billions of dollars in new defense spending. That could run into opposition from fiscal hawks.

"We've gotta pay for everything," insisted Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), who is on the Budget Committee. Roy added, however, that Republicans need to find a way to pass legislation given staunch Democratic opposition in the Senate.

If the Senate does take the reconciliation package, some House Republicans are concerned that Senate Republicans would add additional spending or water down any House-crafted voter ID and citizenship language in the SAVE America Act. The Senate is limited by strict rules about what can go into a reconciliation bill.

Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), a member of the Budget Committee, said he needs the SAVE America Act "in its entirety" in reconciliation in order to support it.

Many in the GOP leadership in both chambers say that won't be possible.

With all that's at stake, the administration is blitzing Hill Republicans in an effort to build support for the package. The Pentagon will host a classified briefing Tuesday evening for House Republicans on the need for additional funds. OMB Director Russ Vought met with the House Freedom Caucus Monday.

From a timing perspective, Arrington, the GOP leadership and the White House are hoping that the House can pass a budget resolution before the August recess, which begins at the end of next week.

The budget resolution also needs to go to the Senate, where there hasn't been real interest in another party-line reconciliation bill. Senate Majority Leader John Thune is as skeptical as ever of reconciliation 3.0, saying Monday it will be a "heavy lift," "really challenging" and involve a "bumpy" path to getting the votes in his chamber.

- Jake Sherman, Em Luetkemeyer, Laura Weiss