Fed projects one 2026 rate hike as Warsh skips dot plot submission

Fed projects one 2026 rate hike as Warsh skips dot plot submission

Hawkish central bank statement raises chances of higher rates this year

By Fergal McAlinden, 17 Jun 2026

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its June meeting but signaled a more hawkish outlook for the rest of 2026, with its updated projections pointing to at least one rate hike ahead - while new chair Kevin Warsh declined to submit his own forecast, breaking with tradition.

Nine of the 18 officials who participated in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) indicated that the federal funds rate would finish 2026 above its current target range of 3.5% to 3.75%, with eight expecting no change and one projecting a cut.

The median estimate for that rate at year-end now stands at 3.8%, up from 3.4% in the March projections. Warsh, meanwhile, confirmed at his first ever post-meeting press conference that he had withheld his own submission.

"It's been the practice of this committee for participants to submit these projections, and I have encouraged my colleagues to continue to do so," Warsh said. "I, however, have refrained from offering any projections of my own, consistent with my long-held views on the SEP [Summary of Economic Projections], at least as currently structured."

Mortgage industry greets Fed call with a shrug

The decision came as little surprise to mortgage professionals tracking the Fed statement, particularly with geopolitical factors continuing to weigh on the central bank's thinking despite the emergence of positive news on the war between the US and Iran this week.

"I think they're more cautious about what's going to happen with the Iran-US oil situation," Fif Ghobadian, senior vice president of mortgage lending at OriginPoint in San Francisco, told Mortgage Professional America.

Nor was Warsh's decision to withhold his own views on the dot plot unexpected. "We were expecting no change, and the fact that they're going to be a little less transparent about what's happening with their decisions was also kind of expected. So there were really no surprises."

There are still plenty of twists and turns ahead between now and the end of the year for the Fed, particularly if expectations harden around a potential interest rate hike. That would likely put further pressure on affordability at a time when the housing market is already grappling with elevated borrowing costs.