Senate market versus the raters: the prices, volumes, books, rating lists and the limits
Companion to the editorial. Polymarket figures are as its public read-only API returned them; the rating lists are the desk's transcription of three raters' pages; counts, averages and ratios are the desk's and are labelled. Prices are prices, not forecasts the desk endorses.
What was read, and when
The Polymarket pull ran from 00:42:42 to about 01:03 UTC on 13 October 2026 (8:42 to about 9:03 p.m. Eastern on 12 October). Raters' pages were read through Firecrawl between about 00:43 and 00:55 UTC. The full pull is the file polymarket_senate_2026-10-13T00:42:42Z.json (912,935 bytes), sha256 ce2b0cd0902b5a0d79d4fd659344a047dce3e3614f5a52652bba5c9fcbe2a90e, with the raw event responses beside it on the DGX at ~/jobs/signal_sweep/q06.
- GA: event fetched 00:46:35 UTC
- NC: event fetched 00:47:52 UTC
- TX: event fetched 00:56:57 UTC
- OH: event fetched 01:00:50 UTC
- ME: event fetched 00:55:39 UTC
- NH: event fetched 00:45:17 UTC
- MI: event fetched 00:42:42 UTC
- AK: event fetched 00:49:09 UTC
- IA: event fetched 00:51:46 UTC
- MN: event fetched 00:43:59 UTC
- SC: event fetched 00:58:14 UTC
- FL: event fetched 00:59:32 UTC
- KY: event fetched 00:53:04 UTC
- LA: event fetched 00:54:22 UTC
- CONTROL: event fetched 01:02:07 UTC
Prices, volumes, depth and ratings
Price is the Democratic contract's displayed price (for Control, the Democratic Party controlling the Senate). Volumes are Polymarket's event figures. Bids within 2 points is the dollar cost, at their own limit prices, of resting buy orders between the best bid and a price 0.02 below it, on the Democratic contract's Yes token.
| Race | Democratic contract | Price | Bid / ask | Event 24h volume | Event 30-day volume | Event all-time volume | Bids within 2 pts | First → last sample (13 Sep → 13 Oct) | Cook | Inside | Sabato (where read) | Desk board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | Jon Ossoff | 96.1% | 95.7 / 96.7 | $2,707 | $91,327 | $222,555 | $18,110 | 92.5% → 96.2% | Likely D | Lean D | Likely Democratic (Jul 30) | tossup |
| North Carolina | Roy Cooper | 96.1% | 95.9 / 96.3 | $2,419 | $116,292 | $223,043 | $33,993 | 92.5% → 96.1% | Likely D | Lean D | Leans Democratic (Jun 11; current not confirmed) | tossup |
| Minnesota | Peggy Flanagan | 87.5% | 87.0 / 88.0 | $1,277 | $150,702 | $219,326 | $19,429 | 91.5% → 87.5% | Likely D | Lean D | Likely Democratic (Oct 6) | likely-d |
| New Hampshire | Chris Pappas | 88.5% | 88.0 / 89.0 | $7,479 | $224,687 | $327,855 | $38,053 | 83.5% → 88.5% | Lean D | Toss-up | lean-d | |
| Michigan | Abdul El-Sayed | 70.5% | 70.0 / 71.0 | $34,317 | $906,669 | $1,615,964 | $8,858 | 63.5% → 70.5% | Toss Up | Tilt D | lean-d | |
| Alaska | Mary Peltola | 72.5% | 72.0 / 73.0 | $3,077 | $765,197 | $1,250,860 | $34,244 | 67.5% → 72.5% | Toss Up | Toss-up | Leans Democratic (Oct 6) | lean-d |
| Maine | Troy Jackson | 58.5% | 58.0 / 59.0 | $2,571 | $884,029 | $2,224,615 | $14,945 | 70.5% → 58.5% | Toss Up | Toss-up | lean-d | |
| Ohio (special) | Sherrod Brown | 61.5% | 61.0 / 62.0 | $12,692 | $838,937 | $1,151,773 | $21,543 | 51.5% → 61.5% | Toss Up | Toss-up | tossup | |
| Texas | James Talarico | 62.5% | 62.0 / 63.0 | $114,326 | $2,365,252 | $3,435,194 | $118,753 | 51.5% → 62.5% | Toss Up | Tilt R | Toss-up (archive summary) | tossup |
| Iowa | Josh Turek | 42.5% | 42.0 / 43.0 | $2,084 | $598,135 | $870,712 | $27,207 | 39.5% → 42.5% | Toss Up | Tilt R | lean-r | |
| South Carolina | Annie Andrews | 15.5% | 15.0 / 16.0 | $1,021 | $566,615 | $765,608 | $16,077 | 13.5% → 15.5% | Likely R | Likely R | Likely Republican (Oct 6) | likely-r |
| Florida (special) | Angie Nixon | 10.5% | 10.0 / 11.0 | $1,613 | $110,551 | $223,646 | $361 | 7.5% → 10.5% | Solid R | Solid R | likely-r | |
| Kentucky | Charles Booker | 2.9% | 2.4 / 3.4 | $114 | $2,514 | $36,838 | $14 | 2.5% → 2.9% | Solid R | Solid R | likely-r | |
| Louisiana | Jamie Davis | 6.5% | 6.0 / 7.0 | $1 | $7,690 | $48,749 | $144 | 6.5% → 6.5% | Solid R | Solid R | likely-r | |
| Control of the Senate | Democratic Party | 63.5% | 63.0 / 64.0 | $47,527 | $2,067,648 | $6,365,680 | $145,062 | 53.5% → 63.5% |
The 30-day series
Six-hour samples for every contract above are in the saved JSON; the exhibits of the editorial quote the series for Georgia, North Carolina, Texas, Ohio, Maine and Control. For Maine the sampled price of the Democratic contract fell from 73.5% on 24 September (06:00 UTC) to 58.5% by 1 October (00:00 UTC) and stayed between 56.5% and 59.5% through the last sample.
Resolution rules
Both state contracts resolve on the winner of the race, settled when the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC all call it for the same candidate, or on official certification if they do not. The control event resolves on the party that wins a majority of voting seats, with the Vice Presidency breaking a tie. The rules text is quoted in full in the editorial's sources.
Where the rating lists come from
Cook Political Report: 2026 CPR Senate Race Ratings, page dated Oct 6, 2026 (cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings). Inside Elections: Senate ratings, updated October 1, 2026 2:23pm (insideelections.com/ratings/senate). Sabato's Crystal Ball: articles of 30 July and 6 October 2026 and the 2 September and 11 June articles, as cited. The desk's elections board is elections/data/ratings.json, whose own meta.updated is 2026-08-29T03:48:27Z.